Modelling for Science, for a better future - some recent outcomes
Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections
by Kavirajan Rajendran, Sajani Surendran, Akio Kitoh and Stella Jes Varghese
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled global climate model (CGCM) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with substantial inter-model spread. Robust signals of projected changes are derived based on objective criteria and the physically consistent simulations with the highest reliability suggest future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall. The role of equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans on the projected changes in monsoon rainfall is investigated. The results of coupled model projections are also compared with the corresponding projections from high resolution AGCM time-slice, multi-physics and multi-forcing ensemble experiments.
Source: http://proceedings.spiedigitallibrary.org/proceeding.aspx?articleid=2520753
Citation: Kavirajan Rajendran, Sajani Surendran, Akio Kitoh and Stella Jes Varghese (2016), Reduction of uncertainty associated with future changes in Indian summer monsoon projected by climate models and assessment of monsoon teleconnections, Proc. SPIE, 98820D (May 3) doi:10.1117/12.2229392; http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.2229392
Neo-deterministic Definition of Seismic and Tsunami Hazard Scenarios for the Territory of Gujarat (India)
by A. Magrin, I. A. Parvez, F. Vaccari, A. Peresan , B. K. Rastogi, S. Cozzini, D. Bisignano, F. Romanelli, Ashish, P. Choudhury, K. S. Roy, R. R. Mir and G. F. Panza
A reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected seismic ground shaking is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. So far, one of the major problems in classical methods for seismic hazard assessment consisted in the adequate characterization of the attenuation models, which may be unable to account for the complexity of the medium and of the seismic sources and are often weakly constrained by the available observations. Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of attenuation relations. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), which allows considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modelling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and, thanks to advanced computational infrastructures, permits to carry on parametric analysis and stability tests that contribute characterizing the related uncertainties, as well as to fill in the unavoidable gaps in available observations. Results from preliminary application of NDSHA method to regional scale seismic hazard assessment (ground motion at bedrock) and tsunami scenarios modelling for the Gujarat territory are illustrated. The resulting estimates are compared with available information about intensities from past earthquakes, as well as with recently developed probabilistic seismic hazard map of Gujarat.
source: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-21753-6_7
Probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment for Peninsular India
by Ashish, C. Lindholm, I. A. Parvez and D. Kühn
In this paper, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is presented for Peninsular India. The PSHA has been performed using three different recurrence models: a classical seismic zonation model, a fault model, and a grid model. The development of a grid model based on a non-parameterized recurrence model using an adaptation of the Kernel-based method that has not been applied to this region before. The results obtained from the three models have been combined in a logic tree structure in order to investigate the impact of different weights of the models. Three suitable attenuation relations have been considered in terms of spectral acceleration for the stable continental crust as well as for the active crust within the Gujarat region. While Peninsular India has experienced large earthquakes, e.g., Latur and Jabalpur, it represents in general a stable continental region with little earthquake activity, as also confirmed in our hazard results. On the other hand, our study demonstrates that both the Gujarat and the Koyna regions are exposed to a high seismic hazard. The peak ground acceleration for 10 % exceedance in 50 years observed in Koyna is 0.4 g and in the Kutch region of Gujarat up to 0.3 g. With respect to spectral acceleration at 1 Hz, estimated ground motion amplitudes are higher in Gujarat than in the Koyna region due to the higher frequency of occurrence of larger earthquakes. We discuss the higher PGA levels for Koyna compared Gujarat and do not accept them uncritically.
source: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10950-015-9548-2
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